What Trump has in mind for the November elections

While Trump's overall approval ratings are not actually desperately bad, at somewhere between an average of 36% and 39%, depending on which averages you look at, if you look at his ratings for strong approval specifically, they are awfully bad, at just 14% overall, with no one really disputing these facts lately. In other words, only slightly more than one in ten Americans actually think Trump is doing a very good job, and would take any significant trouble for him. That may well include going to the polls to vote for Republicans, you know. Given these facts, Donald Trump, being the shrewd, practical survivor he is, is adopting a strategy to optimize his chances of political survival, and likely actual personal physical survival as well, for himself, and for his entire family, which, actually, is also under considerable risk of attack from Iran, among other mortal enemies. And, Trump is actually telegraphing percisely what he has in mind, quite clearly at this stage. He is saying, over and over again, that the American people are not mad at him, they are mad at the Republicans in Congress. He has also quite recently filed a 5 billion dollar lawsuit and threatened FCC action against a prominent major network journalist merely for suggesting that Trump's capacity to influence Republican primaries isn't quite what it was, and doesn't always work very well these days. He is also vehemently disputing all the polls saying that he isn't very popular anymore with the American people. So, what is Trump trying to tell us exactly here? I think it's pretty clear really. Trump is saying, to Republicans specifically, I'm still very popular, popular enough to sink you all, and you can be sure I will sink you all, if you don't stand by me, in my hour of need. And, Trump knows pretty well now, that is hour of need is almost certainly going to come along next year. Kalshi is now giving nearly a 70% chance of Trump being impeached, about as high as it's ever been. And, while Trump doesn't mind really being impeached that much these days, he definitely does not want to be removed from office prematurely. First of all, Trump really doesn't want to be the first President to have that happen to him, that would make him look like a loser and a jerk, and everyone would laugh at him, now, and in the future. Doesn't appeal to him at all. Secondly, if Trump is impeached, normally anyway, his family loses all secret service protection, and Trump's youngest son Barron Trump has just had a 10 million dollar bounty put on his head by the Iranian government on Iranian government TV. Actually, his daughter Ivanka Trump has also had serious plots directed against her by the Iranians as well, so, Trump is concerned that once the limitless shield of US government secret service protection is dropped, his entire line of descent could go extinct, to the third or fourth generation, very quickly indeed, courtesy of the Iranian government. Do you think Trump has figured out yet that murdering the Iranian Supreme Leader might not have been such a great idea, after all? Hard to say. I think Trump is actually fond of his family, for the most part. Thirdly, if Trump is impeached and removed from office, there is a very strong probability that Trump will actually be imprisoned on some pretext or other, as well. SCOTUS cannot protect him from the wrath of the American people, if they are angry enough at him. The reason I say this, is because we are beginning to see that Trump is facing the same perfect political storm that brought down Richard Nixon some half a century ago. Richard Nixon didn't resign out of a sense of honor, and wanting to save the American people the trauma of an impeachment trial in the senate he thought he could win. Nixon knew Republicans had had enough of him, that he had lost his support base, and they didn't want to go down with him. Nixon knew that he was facing removal and imprisonment if he didn't resign. The deal was, resign, and we'll let you go. The combination of staglation, economic discomfort for most Americans, failure in war, and the sense that this can all be attributed to dishonesty and criminal activity over a long period of time, is beginning to have a telling effect on Trump's support base, and making it shrink considerably, now, just like with Richard Nixon. There is also the fact that Trump is so much trouble and so disruptive, all the time, that it's getting to the point that very few powerful people on any point of the political spectrum really want him around anymore, at all. They want him under control. Which means locked up. Trump, like Richard Nixon, was a protege and disciple of the late Roy Cohn, a leader of the communist witch hunts in the 1950's, along with disgraced Senator Joseph Macarthy. Roy Cohn believed in demagoguery pursued to the ultimate extent, just like Nixon and Trump. Double down, never back down, intimidate everyone, all the time. Behave like a mob boss. Roy Cohn has his license to practice law revoked shortly before his death from aides. Richard Nixon was forced to resign, or face impeachment, removal and imprisonment, his own Party was dropping him, he was electoral poison, Republicans would have supported Democrats to take Nixon down. Trump wants to avoid this, at all costs. So, what Trump is trying to do, being Trump, is to intimidate the Republicans to hold the line, and continue to support him, no matter what happens in the elections this November. Trump knows that the Democrats are going to take a solid majority in the House of Representatives in November, despite his frantic calls for redistricting. He also knows they will probably take the Senate too. However, even though there are 22 Republican Senators up for reelection, and it is statistically possible that Democrats could actually have more than enough Senators to impeach anyone they want to at the federal level come January, most of these seats are in deep Red territory on the electoral map, and it seems highly improbable that the Democrats can take 20 of them. You never now, but, highly unlikely. So, in all probability, the Democrats will need Republican support to actually remove Trump from office. Now, if the Democrats merely get three or four Senate seats, enough to tie up the Senate, or a bare majority, Trump can probably hang on. This isn't enough to convince Republicans in deep red states to jump ship, or that Trump is totally toothlesss to attack them, and destroy their careers. However, suppose that Democrats take six to eight Senate seats, and fifty or sixty House seats, and flip control of Florida and Texas at the State level. Suppose they do as well as that, or better? If Republicans feel the survival of their Party, and their political careers are at risk, Trump can hurl all the threat he wants, it will just make them angrier at him, and more certain that he must be removed, and brought under control. So, the American people will really be deciding Trump's ultimate fate in November. #politics #geopolitics #uscongress #usconstitution #impeachment #richardnixon #trump #donaldtrump #uselections #psychology #psychoanalysis #secretservice #barrontrump #ivankatrump #barontrump #assassinations #ussupremecourt #iran #roycohn #macarthyism #history #ushistory #law