Nuclear Politics: Parallels between Iraq and Vietnam
Many people comment on the similarities between Iraq and Vietnam: a quagmire, a war for money, a war for politics, a war for ideology. But one very clear parallel is rarely mentioned and never emphasized. In both cases, the U.S. was fighting in the backyard of a new nuclear power with which America had not had formal diplomatic relations for decades.
In the case of Vietnam, that new nuclear power was China: China exploded its first atomic bomb in 1964 and, perhaps not coincidentally, the Gulf of Tonkin incident leading to massive escalation of the Vietnam War occurred the same year. China and the United States had not had relations since the communist takeover in 1949, and had fought openly during the Korean War.
In the case of Iraq, that new nuclear power is Iran. The Iranians have been working on developing their own nuclear weapons for decades, to some extent in association with Pakistan and to some extent with France and Russia. And, now, they are getting near the point of being able to develop their own atomic weapons.
Why is this significant, in terms of the War in Iraq? Well, I think it probably makes the U.S. government nervous to have a nation nuclear armed if they have no diplomatic relations with America at all. It makes the U.S. government feel that things are somewhat out of control. Like during the Iranian hostage crisis, the cause of the long-term breakdown in U.S.-Iranian relations. While in comparison to 911 or the Iraq War, the Iranian hostage crisis looks, in retrospect, like a kind of frat-party prank, at the time it was taken very seriously indeed.
As anyone familiar with human relations knows, one of the best ways to force communication with someone is to create a crisis in their immediate vicinity, that affects their practical interests. The Vietnam War forced the Chinese into a degree of international bellicosity that was uncharacteristic for them. Ultimately, in 1968-69 they engaged in a border war with the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union threatened nuclear annihilation, the U.S. said no. Suddenly, despite the Vietnam War, the Chinese needed the U.S. The new nuclear power came under control.
The Iraq War has force the Iranians into a degree of international bellicosity that is uncharacteristic for them. Their open and rapid development of atomic weapons has antagonized their traditional friends like France and Germany, and they are now at risk of suffering major sanctions from the entire international community. They cannot afford this. Suddenly, the Iranians need the U.S. The new nuclear power will come under control. And large-scale U.S. involvement in Iraq will end very quickly. As it did in Vietnam.
Many people comment on the similarities between Iraq and Vietnam: a quagmire, a war for money, a war for politics, a war for ideology. But one very clear parallel is rarely mentioned and never emphasized. In both cases, the U.S. was fighting in the backyard of a new nuclear power with which America had not had formal diplomatic relations for decades.
In the case of Vietnam, that new nuclear power was China: China exploded its first atomic bomb in 1964 and, perhaps not coincidentally, the Gulf of Tonkin incident leading to massive escalation of the Vietnam War occurred the same year. China and the United States had not had relations since the communist takeover in 1949, and had fought openly during the Korean War.
In the case of Iraq, that new nuclear power is Iran. The Iranians have been working on developing their own nuclear weapons for decades, to some extent in association with Pakistan and to some extent with France and Russia. And, now, they are getting near the point of being able to develop their own atomic weapons.
Why is this significant, in terms of the War in Iraq? Well, I think it probably makes the U.S. government nervous to have a nation nuclear armed if they have no diplomatic relations with America at all. It makes the U.S. government feel that things are somewhat out of control. Like during the Iranian hostage crisis, the cause of the long-term breakdown in U.S.-Iranian relations. While in comparison to 911 or the Iraq War, the Iranian hostage crisis looks, in retrospect, like a kind of frat-party prank, at the time it was taken very seriously indeed.
As anyone familiar with human relations knows, one of the best ways to force communication with someone is to create a crisis in their immediate vicinity, that affects their practical interests. The Vietnam War forced the Chinese into a degree of international bellicosity that was uncharacteristic for them. Ultimately, in 1968-69 they engaged in a border war with the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union threatened nuclear annihilation, the U.S. said no. Suddenly, despite the Vietnam War, the Chinese needed the U.S. The new nuclear power came under control.
The Iraq War has force the Iranians into a degree of international bellicosity that is uncharacteristic for them. Their open and rapid development of atomic weapons has antagonized their traditional friends like France and Germany, and they are now at risk of suffering major sanctions from the entire international community. They cannot afford this. Suddenly, the Iranians need the U.S. The new nuclear power will come under control. And large-scale U.S. involvement in Iraq will end very quickly. As it did in Vietnam.
posted by Jerry Kraus at 1:58 PM
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