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THE POET AS SCIENTIST

THE POET AS SCIENTIST, THE POET AS SCIENTIST

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The Geek's Raven
[An excerpt, with thanks to Marcus Bales]

Once upon a midnight dreary,
fingers cramped and vision bleary,
System manuals piled high and wasted paper on the floor,
Longing for the warmth of bedsheets,
Still I sat there, doing spreadsheets:
Having reached the bottom line,
I took a floppy from the drawer.
Typing with a steady hand, I then invoked the SAVE command
But got instead a reprimand: it read "Abort, Retry, Ignore".

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Tuesday, December 20, 2022

What if Lenin had never been born?

What exactly has Lenin's impact been on history, politics and economics? Was he an evil genius, an inspired political visionary, a failed experimenter in social science, or none of the above? Any thoughts? I think that given WWI, WWII is inevitable. I think just how "bad" Lenin was is debatable -- basically, he was just another nineteenth century anarchist who saw violence as the only means to significant political change. So, the problem was that WWI gave the opportunity to people with anarchist leanings to really go to town in terms of using violence on a very large scale, and getting plenty of grass roots supporters, because of the degree of social brutalization. It's significant, I think, that the most brutal of them all -- Mao Zedong -- actually achieved a stable system in China that represents an improvement on any government there in centuries. So, I'm inclined to be a little less judgmental than some about Lenin's violence.

Monday, December 12, 2022

What if Yugoslavia's Marshall Tito has Josef Stalin assassinated in 1946?

It's pretty well known that Tito and Stalin had a major rift following the second world war, with Tito going his own way, and an infuriated Stalin trying to assassinate him at every turn. In fact, something a little less well known, is that Tito was getting a bit bored rounding up Stalin's Russian assassins and having them shot -- a waste of manpower, you know. So, Tito actually sent Stalin a letter in private, found in Stalin's private papers after his death, in which he quite explicitly indicated that unless these attempts stopped immediately, he would finish the problem himself by sending a man to Moscow. And, the assassination attempts promptly stopped. So, it seems perfectly conceivable that Tito could conceivably have indeed assassinated Stalin, if he needed to, to protect himself. So, Stalin is dead seven years earlier than OTL. Now, some of the most significant events in Stalin's career occurred in these last seven years of Stalin's existence. Most notably, - The iron curtain over Eastern Europe -- enforced communism. - The Cold War between East and West. - The Berlin blockade and the Berlin airlift. - The first Red A-bomb. - The communist takeover of China. - The Korean War. Would any of these events be significantly affected by Stalin's death, or would they have proceeded pretty much as OTL, if Stalin is no longer present and his most likely successors take over the role? Any thoughts? My own suspicion, is that nothing actually changes a great deal, with, or without Stalin in these particular years.

Monday, December 05, 2022

What if there were no nuclear test ban treaties?

If you look up the wikipedia article on nuclear test ban treaties, you will see that they are explained in terms of "environmental concerns", and pressure from environmental groups. Now, I have no doubt that environmental groups have no great love for nuclear bomb explosions on land or sea, or even in the atmosphere, the environmental damage in the immediate area would be instantaneous and massive. Actually, almost absolute. However, I very much doubt the first partial nuclear test ban treaty, signed in 1963, just after the Cuban Missile Crisis, was primarily motivated by environmental concerns, in any normal sense of the term. Kennedy: "You know, Nikita, it's true that I'm from a family that believes in winning at all cost, that my father got rich rum running and hanging out with gangsters, and that I just launched a 20 Megaton thermonuclear missile into space specifically to screw up the Van Allen Belts, and make it more dangerous for your unmanned Sputniks and manned Vostoks to travel there, but, I've turned over a new leaf. I've become a born again environmentalist. I've even written a speech in which I say 'Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for the environment.' So let's sign a nuclear best ban treaty." Khrushchev: "Jack, you're right. Yes, I'm a virulent Marxist who exterminated millions of his own people in Ukraine for purely political reasons. And, it's true that I just exploded a 50 Megaton Tsar Bomba in the high arctic just to show you what the USSR is capable of. But, suddenly, I'm deeply concerned about the possibility of the ice caps melting. So, let's sign the nuclear test ban treaty." Actually, what Kennedy and Khrushchev were concerned about was the very real possibility of an all out thermonuclear holocaust occurring by accident, as may have almost occurred during the Cuban Missile Crisis. And, what they were trying to do, by banning all nuclear testing except deep underground, was move towards the elimination of nuclear weapons. Period. Clearly banning the explosion of nuclear bombs in outer space, as the 1963 treaty certainly did, does not bear very directly on the earth's environment. "Outer space" extends to the very end of the universe, after all. So, really, the nuclear test ban treaties aren't about protecting the earth's environment, particularly, they're about the ultimate elimination of this explosive nuclear technology because nuclear explosives represent a direct threat to government authority and power. Arguably, governments have been trying to shut down nuclear research since 1952, with the first explosion of the H-bomb -- a weapon so powerful, that even the largest governments in the world couldn't possibly survive the explosion of just a few dozen of them on their territory. There is nothing on this planet so regulated as nuclear explosives. Aside from the nuclear international test ban treaties, regulating all governments, there are the limitations on the possession of Uranium by individuals, institutions or businesses -- in the U.S., no one is allowed to possess more than a few pounds of Uranium. Now, the problem here, is that pretty much anything that can be useful, can also be harmful. So, the immense power of nuclear explosives, which could probably be harnessed for space travel, energy production, etc. is simply not being exploited, at all. Surely, we could explode nuclear bombs in deep space without destroying the earth's environment. And, isn't it likely that opening up this area to research again might well yield practical benefits for civilian application? So, let's suppose we put aside the nuclear test ban treaties, at least for nuclear research in deep space. Wouldn't that be a positive thing, on the whole?