Whither Texas

As the November election approaches, and it looks more and more likely that Democrats will do rather well, on the whole, probably retaking both House and Senate, the question arises, what about the States? OK, it looks likely the Democrats will retake power at the Federal level, to a large extent anyway, but, will the Republicans retain their power bases in the states, particularly the very large states of Texas and Florida. Texas, in particular, has always been a conservative stronghold. It used to be a Democrat stronghold, when the Democrats were the conservatives, the slaveholders, the segregationists. For decades now, Texas has been a Republican stronghold, since Republicans have become the conservatives, anti-immigrant, racist, anti-government. The reason this is important, is that if Texas ceases to be a Republican, conservative stronghold, really for the first time in its history, it ceases to be a source of money or good candidates for the Republican Party at any level, to a large degree anyway. And Republicans cease to have any real substantial base of operations in the entire United States. The Party may risk permanent extinction under these circumstances, and politicians do not like risking political extinction, do they now? Now, of course, the election is still six weeks away, and we really don't know what exactly is going to happen. Elon Musk is spending big money there. Lately, that hasn't worked out for him too well politically, since Musk is electoral poison, almost everyone hates his guts. However, the price of oil is fluctuating wildly, and, if it's low enough by November, that may help Republicans out a fair amount, or not. Iran has its fingers on the scales of oil prices of course, now, with its control over the Strait of Hormuz, and its allies control over the rest of the Middle East. And, this gives Iran considerable influence directly over the outcome of the US elections this year, of course. It is notable that Polymarket is now giving the Democrats a 40% chance of taking 6 or more Senate seats, something considered inconceivable just a few months ago. Odds of Trump's impeachment are 67% on Kalshi, 69% on Polymarket. Odds of Democrats taking the House are 93% on Polymarket, 91% on Kalshi. If Texas goes Democrat in a big way, inluding a federal Senator, a Democrat governor, and a Democrat House of Representatives, combined with 6 total Senate pickups federally, and 40 or more House pickups federally, Donald Trump risks total mutiny in his own Party, impeachment, and removal. And, all his charm and dealmaking may not be enough to stop it. And, this outcome is approaching even odds, given current polling. And, Democrats have been outperforming the polls by double digits for a year and a half now! #texas #texashistory #uselections #democrats #republicans #ushistory #conservatives #trump #donaldtrump #elonmusk #musk #geopolitics #politics #philosophyofhistory #economics #impeachment #polling #predictionmarkets #politicalscience