The agree to disagree agreement between the US and Iran has collapsed.

Now, that the agree to disagree agreement between the US and Iran has collapsed, what happens next? Well, first of all, as we're seeing, oil prices are rising again. This means that gas prices will start rising again, very shortly. There doesn't seem to be any possible basis for agreement between Trump and Iran, so that seems inevitable.

There is no peace agreement

is there really a peace agreement between Iran and the US? Probably not. They are talking, which is good, of course, but, there is no agreement, nothing even close. Iran retains full control of the Strait of Hormuz, there is no systematic clearing of mines or increase in traffic, nor is one foreseen in the near future. What we have, really, is an agreement to continue talking, nothing more. Which is fine, but, it has nothing to do with the fact that the world's strategic oil reserves are rapidly approaching empty, with no relief in sight. As usual, Donald Trump is using his sales skills to systematically manipulate markets -- something his supporters in MAGA love, of course, but which the rest of us, rather more interested in reality, find rather irritating. Because, you know, reality does have a habit of catching up to you. And, then you do have to deal with it. Trump and his MAGA friends think they can outrun the real world, but, never for long, really. And, never, forever. A spectacular rise in oil prices remains rather likely this year, and a corresponding collapse in the markets.

The world is becoming bipolar

We live on an overpopulated planet, and people are becoming progressively more uncomfortable. When rats are crowded in a cage, they often fight an destroy each other, and we are observing a similar phenomenon in the world as a whole now. So, rather than seeking "consensus", people are now seeking fundamentally new approaches that might actually work. Of course, most of them won't work very well, at all, but, when people are uncomfortable enough, they are willing to try anything, no matter how questionable, in the hopes that it might change things for the better, or, at the very least, get them somewhere else, where they might have some ideas about how to change things for the better. This is the essence of the dialectical method, as Hegel conceived it -- thesis, antithesis, synthesis. You have to try new things, extreme things, to make any progress, at all. Otherwise, you're just running in place. Consensus, generally, is just running in place, and running in place isn't working very well. Of course, those who are actually doing well, would much prefer that everyone continue running in place, because they don't want things to change much. This creates constant conflict.

Upcoming catastrophic effects of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's continued control and closure of the Strait of Hormuz will transition from the current market disruption to truly catastrophic oil price consequences by late summer 2026—specifically between July and August. Up to this point, crude prices have been heavily buffered by government releases from Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and IEA stocks. However, experts warn that these emergency buffers are being rapidly depleted, and once they run dry in the next month or two, a massive physical supply gap will trigger an acute price squeeze.The Trigger Points and Expected Price TrajectoryMarket analyses from organizations like the Brookings Institution and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas outline a clear timeline for when the crisis escalates from severe to catastrophic:The Next 30 to 45 Days (Mid-to-Late Summer 2026): If the blockade is not definitively lifted, crude prices are projected to spike by an additional $40 to $50 a barrel in short order, pushing baseline prices toward $132 to $150 per barrel.The Extended Disruption Threshold (Beyond 3 to 6 Months): Research by firms like Wood Mackenzie indicates that if the impasse forces the Strait to remain closed through the second half of 2026, the global market will suffer structural deficits that could send crude soaring to a catastrophic $200 per barrel.The Infrastructure Tail-Risk: In worst-case military escalation scenarios—such as retaliatory strikes that physically destroy broader Gulf production or refinery infrastructure—prices could realistically reach $300 per barrel.Why the "Catastrophe" Has Delayed Until NowThough the conflict began in February 2026, a few factors have temporarily insulated consumers from immediate triple-digit price paralysis:Subsidized Reserve Drawing: Governments have heavily used the SPR as a price-control tool, selling oil around $95 a barrel to mask the physical deficit.Rerouting and Shifting Flow Dynamics: Some crude has successfully bypassed the bottleneck via Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea or through high-risk "dark routes" transited by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.Diplomatic Overtones: Recent volatile updates—such as President Trump's erratic statements regarding a potential deal—have caused energy markets to momentarily fluctuate on hope rather than pricing in a permanent closure.The Cumulative Economic Domino EffectOnce the physical reserve cushions empty, the crisis stops being just an "oil shock" and transforms into a systemic macroeconomic threat. The Atlantic Council highlights that governments will soon be forced to transition away from price subsidies to mandatory energy rationing and demand reduction.Vulnerable, import-dependent emerging markets in Asia are already feeling acute pressure, resulting in energy austerity measures and increased reliance on dirtier alternative fuels like coal. For Western economies, the delayed surge in transportation costs will imminently feed into broader inflation sticky-points, entirely evaporating the likelihood of interest rate reductions for the foreseeable future.

Why do some revolutions succeed, while others fail?

Obviously, some revolutions are more effective than others. Some are totally still born, some result in massive changes. Why exactly? Obviously, it's necessary for a large proportion of the population to want change, for change to occur, but, quite frequently that isn't nearly enough to cause a successful revolution. In 1989, 100 million Chinese were actively demontrating for democracy, they were crushed completely merely by Deng Xiao Peng -- who wasn't really a communist hardliner at all, just a pragmatist -- killing perhaps at most a few thousand students, in the Tiananmen Square massacre. Everyone just stopped demonstrating, end of story. A similar result occurred in Iran just recently. Massive demonstrations involving many millions, a few thousand killed, everybody gave up. Obviously, it helps if there is some outside assistance. The American Revolution probably would have failed, if France hadn't massively intervened, particularly with naval assistance, to her great cost. Actually, this bankrupted France, and caused her own Revolution! But, that Revolution could quite possibly have been crushed, if Louis XVI had been tough enough, and acted quickly and firmly enough, with military force. The Russian Revolution of 1917 was caused by institutional collapse in the face of wartime deprivations, and an obsolete social structure. So, the key points may be the weakness of the actual government, and the extent of the deprivations really suffered by the citizens themselves. Also, the extent of substantial outside assistance, opposing or supporting the existing government. Iran has solid support from both Russia and China, and, its social system, however disagreeable to the West, is tried and true in terms of surviving any and all conflicts, with anyone.

A market crash for the US under Donald Trump, is good news for the world as a whole

It appears that the AI bubble is bursting, and that, combined with high oil prices due to the continuing Iranian control of the Persian Gulf, is very bad news for the stock markets. They are overvalued, and have been for a long time. Donald Trump has been doing a lot of damage, but, the continued strength of the markets has been propping him up politically, to some extent. That may be about to end, as the markets begin to expect a major correction or partial crash this summer. The Democrats are already 6 or 7 points ahead in the polling, and have been as much as 8 points or more ahead recently. A major correction or partial market crash this summer would likely increase the Democrat lead into double digits, enough to guarantee them control of House and Senate by comfortable margins, efffectively, if not actually, putting an end to Donald Trump's presidency.

The new Iranian hostage crisis

On the surface, Donald Trump and Jimmy Carter wouldn't seem to have a great deal in common, at all. Trump is a billionaire showman, Carter was a farmer and engineer. Of course both became President, but, otherwuse, rather different types indeed. But, they have come to have something significant in common. They both have gotten on the wrong side of the Iranians, and, if there is one thing the last half century has taught us, it's that getting on the wrong side of the Iranians, is a very bad idea, indeed. Look what happened to the Shah, to Jimmy Carter, to Saddam Hussein, to George Bush Junior? They crossed the Iranians, and they were finished, politically, or actually, and existentially. And, it does appear, exactly the same thing is happening again to Donald Trump, and quite possibly, to Benjamin Netanyahu, as well. The Iranian hostage crisis in the late 1970's was a brilliant masterstroke of political theatre that brought down President Jimmy Carter. As it happens, that wasn't such a great idea for the Iranians, since it resulted in the invasion and occupation of much of Iran by Saddam Hussein for years, and the election victory of conservative President Ronald Reagan, in the 1980's. However, even that kind of worked out for Iran, since Reagan brought down their enemy, the Soviet Union, and the defeated Saddam Hussein, all by themselves. Now, Iran has brought about a new hostage crisis, due to Donald Trump's most imprudent repeated attacks on Iran, and murders of their leaders. Iran has, quite literally taken the entire Persian Gulf hostage. As a result, Donald Trump must beg the Israelis to cease their attacks in Lebanon, lest Iran stop talking to him. As a result, Iranian backed Iraqi militias are unifying with the Iraqi government itself, as Iraq pivots towards Iran.