The prediction market odds for Republicans holding the Senate are down to just 60/40
As Democrats show highly successful fundraising efforts in competitive districts, continue to maintain a strong lead in Generic Congressional polling, and continue to win elections in blood red districts in red states, the predictions markets are taking note, and bettors are now giving the Republicans only a slight edge of 60/40 over the Democrats, of holding the Senate. The most probable result now, is that the Democrats will win three seats, to tie the Senate at 50-50, with JD Vance being the deciding vote. Of course, given moderate Republicans like Rand Paul, and Lisa Murkowski, such an outcome would largely given the Democrats control of the Senate, in any case.
This is a marked change from overwhelming four to one odds against the Democrats just a few months ago. The assumption was, that, although 22 Repubicans were up for reelection, against just 13 Democrats, all the Republicans were in districts that voted for Donald Trump, so the chances of Democrats taking these seats were minimal. What's changed, in particular, has been the incredible success Democrats have consistently shown even in Red States in elections over the last year, since Trump started messing everything up. Most Independents and even some Republicans are realizing that the Party of Donald Trump longer protects their best interests.

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