WI: Nineteenth Century Chinese Reforms are Successful

The collapse of Imperial China, and its subjection to near colonial status by the European powers, was one of the great watersheds in history. An empire that had been one of the great world powers quite literally for millenia, was rather suddenly reduced to absolute prostration before superior European technology and military might. The Chinese were, of course, aware of the problem, and attempted to correct for it. They hoped, as the Japanese actually succeeded in doing, to catch up within a few decades. As it happened, a century and a half were required, for the Chinese to once again achieve parity with the West. Various explanations are provided for this. The most plausible is simply that nineteenth century communications were inadequate to rapidly and fundamentally restructure the entire socio-economic system of an empire as large and complex as China.

In any case, suppose that, hypothetically, the Chinese had progressed as rapidly as the Japanese in modernizing their nation. What would the effects have been on:

1. Japan. Does Japan still become a great empire? I would argue no, of course. The Chinese will be too powerful.

2. Russia. Does Russia still have a Revolution? Does Russia remain an empire, or does it become a communist state?

3. Western Europe. To what extent does China's entry on the scene as a Great Power affect nineteenth century imperialism? In India. In Africa. I would imagine the Chinese would certainly be dominant in IndoChina, rather than the French. What about the Phillipines, and Australia?

4. The First World War. Does does war occur, given two great powers -- China and the U.S. -- on the sidelines, who can intervene at anytime, on either side?