The correct analogy to the nation of "Ukraine" is "South Vietnam"
NATO has invested some 100 billion dollars this year to build a massive and well armed military in Ukraine of some one million men. The Russians had, of course, not expected this, when they initiated their special military operation in Ukraine. They had expected, at most, modest assistance to Ukraine, and, consequently, a quick and successful campaign. Not surprisingly, America has managed to slow the Russians down, even force them back sometimes, here and there. Sometimes, as in the recent case of Kherson, Russia simply decided it wasn't worth the trouble to retain the territory. For the moment, anyway.
However, Russia wants and needs Ukraine back in Russia. And, that's not going to change. As in the case of South Vietnam, America assumes that it can spend its enemies into submission. Supposedly, 20 billion dollars a month is "nothing" to the U.S. Well, maybe. And, maybe not. Inflation is becoming fairly catastrophic in the U.S., as it became during the Vietnam War, and, for exactly the same reason. We're blowing money on a pointless, endless war.
There is also the point, as was the case in Vietnam, that simply for moral reasons, the American people may eventually tire of mass extermination for fun and profit. I realize for all you CIA types out there, mass extermination is really the name of the game, but, actually, not all Americans agree with you on this point. Once they become convinced that, despite the propaganda, most people in the region would prefer for the carnage to end, they may cease to be willing to cost themselves, and the world, so much worthless damage.
Some of the assumptions people make are simply silly here. China is not going to invade Russia to take over Siberia. The last person to seriously consider that option was Chinese military generalissimo Lin Biao, back in the late 1960's. Mao Zedong was brought out of semi-retirement specifically to assassinate his old comrade in arms, for this reason. The Chinese value their Russian ally and have no intention of destabilizing Russia.
The Russian economy remains strong, it will not collapse, no matter how long this war continues. The real issue is, who has the most legitimate interest in Ukraine? America or Russia? The answer is quite clear -- Russia has more interest here, and Russia will win.
Charles XII of Sweden, France's Napoleon and Adolf Hitler of Germany made the mistake of underestimating Russia in the eighteenth, nineteenth and twentieth centuries, respectively. They all lost great empires because of it. France and Germany are already distancing themselves from America in the pursuit of the Ukrainian War. A likely consequence of continued military involvement in Ukraine is the total collapse of NATO as a meaningful military organization, particularly with regard to Russia. America may have to learn the hard way the consequences of trifling with the Russian Bear.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home