What if the Mongols had never invaded Russia?

So, let's suppose that Genghis Khan and his progeny decide to primarily head south -- southeast and southwest -- rather than due west. The peoples of Russia and environs are untouched by the Mongol Hordes. How does this change history? I think it's quite significant that Russia remained officially a vassal of the Mongol State until nearly the end of the fifteenth century, long after Mongol power had largely dissipated. Effectively, the Russians -- the Grand Duchy of Muscovy, in particular -- really rather respected and admired the Mongols, and found their yoke rather light, apparently. Even great Russian heroes like Alexander Nevsky, despite his military successes against the Swedes and the Germans, remained always a loyal and subservient vassal of the Mongols, regularly paying them homage, and following their orders. In fact, I would tend to argue that the Mongol Empire may never have really ended, at all. The Mongol Empire may simply have morphed into the Russian Empire. The Russians, as we understand them, really learned rather a lot from the Mongols. The peoples of the region, sparsely inhabited, open cold plains covering Ukraine, Poland, Novgorod etc., had always tended to be rather democratically and loosely governed. As consequence, they were always subject to ready invasion from all sides. From the Mongols they learned the science of ruthless, but effective government, for purposes of social control and self-defense. Up to a point, anyway, it has always tended to work. Ruthless and self-disciplined, centralized government has made the Russians, like the Mongols, virtually invincible in war, and, up to a point, may even have benefitted the average Russian by providing a practically disciplined and effective bureaucracy to help them survive the difficult climate. Take the first great Russian Emperor, Ivan the Terrible. Please! No, no, just kidding. One of the stories told about old Ivan is that of how he dealt with a corrupt deacon who accepted a fried goose stuffed with coins as a bribe. Ivan cut off each of his arms and legs in turn, asking "Do I know how to dress a goose?" at each blow. Ivan is reported to have executed more than a third of his officials for official corruption. So, Russians accept brutality as a given in order to effectively manage and structure society. And, they are willing to submit to it, in turn. Peter the Great -- who could just as easily be called Peter the Terrible, actually -- managed to exterminate 20% of the entire Russian population in forced labor programs to create the new capitol of St. Petersburg. When Stalin imprisoned millions of former POWS repatriated from Germany to Russia, merely for having surrendered to the Germans, it was considered an act of intolerable oppression in the West. How would this go over in Western democracies? It would almost certainly cause Revolution. But, in Russia, it is tolerated. Indeed, Vladimir Putin has indicated that in the current war with Ukraine, he will apply exactly the same law as Stalin did in World War Two -- Russian soldiers who are captured by the Ukrainians, and who fail to escape, will be subject to ten years imprisonment upon being repatriated to Russia. But, the Russians will accept this, and it will motivate them to fight for Russia all the harder. Throughout Russian history, Russians have always struggled to escape conscription, but, it's never stopped the Russians from raising and maintaining huge armies. It hasn't in the past, and, it won't now. So, let's suppose none of this actually applies to Russia, because they never had the good example of the Mongols to follow. The peoples of the region remain loosely governed and semi-democratic societies. Well, I guess the Germans and the Swedes would have had the opportunity, through superior discipline, to overwhelm them in the West, and would have extended much farther East, perhaps to the Caucasus. The Ottomans likely would have pushed much farther North, and taken territories perhaps as far North as Moscow. In the East, the Chinese Empire probably would have taken most of Siberia. Because, history teaches us, it is superior discipline and centralization of power that generally lead to military success and stable government. Any thoughts?