Random Quote Generator

THE POET AS SCIENTIST

THE POET AS SCIENTIST, THE POET AS SCIENTIST

Free JavaScripts provided
by The JavaScript Source

The Geek's Raven
[An excerpt, with thanks to Marcus Bales]

Once upon a midnight dreary,
fingers cramped and vision bleary,
System manuals piled high and wasted paper on the floor,
Longing for the warmth of bedsheets,
Still I sat there, doing spreadsheets:
Having reached the bottom line,
I took a floppy from the drawer.
Typing with a steady hand, I then invoked the SAVE command
But got instead a reprimand: it read "Abort, Retry, Ignore".

Free JavaScripts provided
by The JavaScript Source

Form input - by Günter Born

Monday, May 09, 2022

What if Hitler avoids war, and builds a sizeable thermonuclear arsenal by 1960?

While not particularly probable, I don't think this is by any means impossible, or inconceivable. For those who object that Hitler's health wouldn't have allowed him to live this long, bear in mind that in 1939 at the outbreak of WWII, Hitler was a very youthful and energetic man, looking more like forty than his actual fifty years. The stress and sleeplessness, combined with pursuit of doctors and their quack medications, that aged him thirty years in six, probably wouldn't have happened without WWII. So, if Hitler doesn't invade Poland, there's no particular reason to think he couldn't have kept his health, and stayed in power for a generation or more. And, I don't really think there was any necessity for Hitler to invade Poland, actually. True, he was deeply in debt, but, given the willingness of Europe to hand over Czechoslovakia and Austria to him, it seems likely they would have been willing to forgive these debts. Hitler could simply have developed his central European Empire in peace. Hitler showed manic-depressive tendencies his entire life, and that's, ultimately, probably what drove him to initiate WWII. Nevertheless, between the Beer Hall Putsch in 1923, and his invasion of Poland in 1939, Hitler behaved fairly rationally, and effectively. Even the Nazi-Soviet pact might have been functional, and possible, if instead of being a blueprint for aggression, it had simply been a defensive arrangement. So, suppose that instead of focusing on conventional war preparations, Hitler decides instead to focus on nuclear power, and nuclear weapons. Now, probably, it would have been a good idea not to have Werner Heisenberg -- a determined anti-Nazi -- in charge of this. Heisenberg was a genius, but, quite possibly, a greater genius at lying and manipulating than anything else. Arguably, the double game Heisenberg was playing -- failing miserably to make any progress on a Nazi bomb, while simultaneously motivating the A-bomb project in the U.S. by claiming progress -- was critical in motivating the pacifist U.S. scientists to develop the American Bomb. Without Heisenberg, they might simply have refused to work on it. Indeed, given Heisenberg's astonishing capacity for disinformation, I would suggest physicists might want to think twice about taking his theories about quantum mechanics seriously. Unfortunately, since Isaac Newton's astonishing successes some centuries ago, physicists have tended to assume that any interesting theory they choose to take under their wing must necessarily be absolutely true, regardless of evidence to the contrary, and will select evidence accordingly. Witness Quantum Mechanics, and Relativity. In any case, supppose Hitler avoids war, makes steady economic progress, and develops nuclear power and nuclear weapons after a decade or two. With no World War II, neither the U.S. nor the U.S.S.R. are going to be anything like the superpowers they became by 1945. On the other hand, the British Empire may remain a vital force. So, Hitler's Germany may actually be the world's only nuclear power by 1960, under these circumstances. Or, possibly, Germany and Britain may be the world's only nuclear powers, with Germany holding the lead in weapons and delivery systems by a considerable margin. Bear in mind, Hitler still has Werner von Braun, so, Germany is likely by 1960 to have a massive arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles to deliver their H-bombs and A-bombs. Now, Hitler's still Hitler. He's still the man who wrote Mein Kampf, and probably still holds these views. He's still probably an extreme antisemite, although he's so far had no opportunity to implement a "final solution" to the Jewish Problem. After all, there were only a few hundred thousand Jews left in Germany by the the time Hitler took power in 1934, so, no Holocaust, so far, anyway. Perhaps he executes some Jews from time to time, rather like Saddam Hussein used to do. But, now, he has the most powerful weapons of mass destruction to have ever existed in large numbers, with only perhaps Great Britain in a position to retaliate to any extent, at all. So, what does Hitler do, exactly, in 1960, under these circumstances?

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home