Military technology has changed, that's why the Iran and Ukrainian wars have been unpredictable.

Neither the Iran nor the Ukrainian wars have followed a predictable path. In particular, both Iran and Ukraine have done rather better than expected against -- superficially at least -- more powerful adversaries. What are the reasons for this? Historically, changes in the nature of technology as it applies to military activities have always had dramatic impacts on war, and on politics. The invention of the stirrup gave mounted calvalry a huge advantage over heavy infantry, the basis of the power of the imperial armies of Rome and China, among other great powers. Even a small number of armed horsemen, firmly mounted in stirrups, could overcome large numbers of heavy infantry, organized by great imperail powers. Thus, the Huns, the Mongols, Tamerlane the Great and others were able to run rough-shod over great and stable powers, for many centuries. Thus, we had the age of chivaly, from "cheval", the French for horse. The invention of heavy cannon changed the balance of power again, to large centralized nation states like the French, the Russians and the Ottomans. These heavy cannons required heavy industry and centralized social control to be produced, maintained and transported. Then, the invention of light, portable muskets and rifles once more shifted the balance of power to smaller groups that could function largely independently of the great powers, leading to the Amerian and French Revolutions. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, mass industrialization again favored the great powers and centralized control, with machine guns, fighter plans, tanks and, finally, nuclear weapons, crushing individuals. In the late twentieth century, with the Gulf War, the US used expensive, advanced computer controlled weapons to crush Iraq's Saddam Hussein. What's happened now? Advanced, computer controlled weapons have gotten very cheap. Nations that are outmatched in terms of industrialization and wealth by great powers, can use the power uf fleixibility and independence of highly motivated individuals to effectively annihilate the full power of these same highly industrialized great powers, through the vehicle of these very cheap controlled weapons, the so called "drones". Their ability to produce and deploy these drones cannot be undermined, except by total annhilation, which is impractical except with nuclear weapons, and, first use of nuclear weapons will result in global annihilation. The great powers are in a box!