What if Hero of Alexandria had never invented the steam engine?
The steam engine was invented by Hero of Alexandria 2,000 years ago, and largely remained dormant as a significant technology for about 1,500 years, until it was gradually rediscovered and refined over a period of 400 years, and then gradually discarded and replaced by the gasoline powered internal combusion engine in the last century or so.
Now, I think it's rather unusual for a technology to remain dormant and undeveloped for this long. And, I think I may know why it took so long to develop. You see, the very concept of a human engineered machine that doesn't simply harnass a natural force, like a windmill or watermill, but actually fabricates and controls the force, was an entirely new concept at the time. And how exactly forces should be fabricated and controlled was not something people 2,000 years ago had any experience thinking about, at all. So, really, even given the concept, it was unlikely anyone would go very far with it, at the time. It was simply too new an idea.
Now, with the Renaissance in Europe, a great deal of creative energy was released, supported to some extent by wealth from the New World in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. This combined with the development of printing and the widespread availability of books, led to a range of rather new and effective engineering applications. And, specifically in Great Britain, the use of coal led to the blast furnace and the use of coke to create high quality cast iron and steel in large quantities. And, high quality cast iron and steel are very effective in controlling steam power. So, it's no great surprise that the steam engine was first effectively developed and applied in the eighteenth century, in Great Britain.
But, if Hero of Alexendria hadn't invented the steam engine long before, would it have been invented and developed in the eighteenth century?
I'm not really sure. Maybe, maybe not. Bear in mind, the concept itself is a radical departure from all existing human technology up to that point in time, I believe. A Force is not meerly harnassed, but effectively created and controlled to a high degree. If Hero of Alexandria had not already originated this concept long before, would anyone necessarily have thought of it in the eighteenth century? I'm not sure they would have.
So, let's assume there was no Hero of Alexandria, and the steam engine never gets invented. What happens?
I think, perhaps, nothing happens. Quite literally nothing. All progress in science and technology ceases. We're stuck in the eighteenth century in terms of science and technology, more or less. Because, you see, although it is now obsolete, the steam engine is a "seed technology" that forms the basis for the development of all subsequent advanced technologies. Steam power provides the rapid transportation necessary to provide wealth, materials and food for modern society. No steam power, no improved hygiene and nutrition. Life expectancy is still just at 33 years of age, child mortality is at 70%, into the twenty-first century, Steam power forms a basis for the precision machine tool industry. No steam power, no electrical power or internal combution engines. So, all the fine work of Galileo, Kepler, Newton, Leibniz, Benjamin Franklin, Gauss and so many others, go for nothing. Or, almost nothing.
In society as a whole, I'd say we're stuck at about 1815. There's an American and French Revolution, perhaps the Naploeonic Wars occur, but, after that, we're pretty much stuck. Without the advent of steam power, we can't really have the Industrial Revolution. And without the Industrial Revolution, none of the major wars of the nineteenth or twentieth centuries, absent perhaps the Napoleonic Wars, are really possible. No Mexican-American War, the Mexican Empire remains intact, and as big as the United States, including the Louisiana Territory. Manifest Destiny is never fulfilled. There is no American Civil War, the Northern States don't have the Industrial Power to control the Southern States. Slavery may never be abolished in the United States, at all
In Europe there is no Crimean War, none of the countries have the Industrial Power to fight it. Germany never unifies. Italy never unifies. There is no Franco-Prussian War, Britain, France and Russia remain the premier powers in Europe, and the world. There is no First World War, there is no Second World War. Not without steam power and the Industrial Revolution. The Ottoman Empire remains intact, as does the Austro-Hungarian Empire. No Bolshevik Revolution in Russia of course, the Romanovs are still in charge.
Most of Africa remains unexplored by Europeans, they haven't the industrial power to colonize it. The Manchu Dynasty remains in charge in China, where parents are still castrating their children so they can take the Confucian Civil Service exams and serve as Eunuchs in the Forbidden City. Japan remains a self-isolated kingdom, Admiral Perry never has a fleet to bombard them with. In India, the British still retain nominal colonial control by playing off the various petty princelings who try to rule there. Canada and Australia remain largely undeveloped backwaters, into the twenty-first century, and remain under British colonial control.
So, we're stuck.
I was also wondering if there might be some parallels to our current world situation, where a number of scientific "fails" have led to a certain social stagnation.
I'm referring, specifically to the failure to develop controlled nuclear fusion, the confusion over climate science, and our apparent inability to prevent and fight new diseases, that's leading to a reduction in effective life expectancy.
Is there some fundamental new concept we need, that we're simply missing? Something like the steam engine?
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