WI: Nicholas II institutes a tax on wealth in Russia
Given the vastly greater suffering of the Russian people in the Second World War, in which the Communist government of Josef Stalin could hardly be described as truly representative and democratic, both "1" and "2" can be rather summarily dismissed as adequate explanations. As for "3", it is so patently absurd that it can only be described as a delusion, in a quite technical sense. Rasputin was merely a charismatic and determined lower-class clown. One of his greatest prophecies was his own death, after his very public denunciation in the Duma, as a threat to the very existence of the Russian State. The other was the fall of the Romanov dynasty, as it gradually collapsed into self-indulgent, self-destructive turmoil. Neither of these particular prophecies, obviously, were particularly remarkable at the time. As for his healing gifts, given that the average doctor did more harm then good still, in 1910, is it so very much of a surprise that he did no worse than the doctors?
So, why would anyone believe explanation "3"? We need to delve a bit into psychoanalysis for that. "Transference" is a psychological tendency to transfer feelings from one person or situation to another, for a variety of psychological reasons. There is one thing and one thing only that leads to Revolution, in general -- MONEY. The lack of it, restrictions on it, unequal, unfair and unproductive distribution of it. It is perfectly understandable that the members of the Russian Duma in 1916, all wealthy and powerful landowners, would not have wished to attribute the weakness in the Russian state to THEMSELVES!! It is perfectly understandable that they would see the greatest threat to the State as being a landless peasant like Rasputin, who happened to be friends with the Czarina. After all, if the impoverished could have influence, what on earth would become of the rich like themselves?? So their hatred and fear of Rasputin represented a quite straightforward psychological transference of their fear of loss of power, wealth and prestige to the personage of Rasputin, as representative of their fear of power being passed from themselves to the mass of the Russian people.
Because, the real cause of the Communist Revolution in Russia was simply massive disparities of wealth, which are always destabilizing, and always cause inefficiencies, by depriving the mass of the people from any means of contributing to the state in any but the most menial ways.
So, suppose Nicholas II, at some point in his tenure as Emperor, actually grasps this point, and taxes the rich sufficiently to use their wealth to bring the mass of the population into the economy more productively -- jobs, education, health care, perhaps even scientific research. Instead of pointless luxuries, we have practical work and productive ideas. Instead of a small class of idlers wallowing in luxury, we have a nation of middle class thinkers and workers. What, then, would anyone have to revolt, against?
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